THE MOST ENJOYABLE time I’ve ever had in sports was as offensive coordinator when Tullamore Phoenix won their second Irish American Football League DV8s championship and one moment in particular stands out above all the others.
During a game against Drogheda Lightning, we were reduced to our third string quarterback after injuries put our starter and backup out of the game in the third quarter. It was a level game at the time and every fibre of my being was telling me to hand the ball off to our running back; at that time the best in the league.
However, I decided that was exactly what my opposite number would want me to do and so, although we lined up in a run formation, we ran play action and our quarterback found a wide open wide receiver in the endzone after the defence completely bit on the run.
There’s a reason for this story and it’s that, if Denver are to win Super Bowl XLVIII, they are not going to be able to rely on just Peyton Manning. Instead they’ll have to dive into the playbook and do what few expect them to do on Sunday, run the football.
Despite all the touchdowns they scored through the air this season, Denver has a ground game that can threaten a Seattle defence that ranked joint seventh in the league this season, alongside the Broncos. However, while Denver have given up just 64.5 yards per game (ypg) on the ground in the playoffs, Seattle’s rush defence has regressed, averaging 134.5 ypg in the postseason.
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On offence, Denver have increased the number of times they run the football from 28 attempts per game during the season to 31 in the playoffs and the number of yards per game from 117 to 120. However, far more importantly than either of those stats is the fact that, in the postseason, the Broncos increased the number of first downs they made on the ground per game by 33%
To beat the Seattle defence on the ground though, Denver will have to change yet another habit. Per Pro Football Focus, when running the football, the Broncos ran over 62% of their plays up the middle. Do that and Seattle will eat up Knowshon Moreno or whoever is running the ball.
However, when attacked outside the tackles, the Seahawks are much more vulnerable as, despite being the league’s top-ranked defence, they are ranked outside the top twenty in ypg when teams rush the outside. With Denver averaging 5.5 yards per carry when running outside themselves, they must take full advantage if they are to lift the Vince Lombardi trophy in the early hours of Monday morning.
Marshawn Lynch (24) in full Beast Mode.
Image: Elaine Thompson/AP/Press
For the Seahawks to win, they just need to continue what they’ve been doing all year, mixing an elite running game with a mixture of short and intermediate passes. Indeed, this season, Seattle gained an average of 11 yards every time they attempted an intermediate pass. That’s a first down every play.
It helps that Seattle’s receivers don’t drop the ball when they’re targeted on plays of 10-20 yards, putting the ball on the ground just twice this season. Golden Tate could be key to the Seahawks’ passing attack. Averaging nearly eight yards after completing every catch, if Tate and Percy Harvin can confuse Dominique Rodgers-Comartie and Champ Bailey with their route running, they will create space for their team’s most potent weapon, Marshawn Lynch.
The Seattle running back continues to make an argument for him to be called the league’s best and is the only player to rush for at least 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns in each of the last three seasons.
One big battle — literally — on Sunday will be between Lynch and Denver nose-tackle Terrance ‘Pot Roast’ Knighton. For a man who weighs 24 stone, Knighton is among the NFL’s best nose-tackles and when he’s on the field, the Broncos allow just 2.9 yards per run, compared to 3.7 when he’s not. Again, that doesn’t seem like a huge amount but it’s the difference between a first down on every set of downs and not.
Like the Broncos though, the Seahawks will look to rush outside, where Lynch has forced 13 missed tackles on just 22 attempts this postseason. If Knighton and the Denver defence don’t make their first tackle — and the first man up misses for them more than 20% of the time — they will be punished heavily.
Verdict
Peyton Manning is too smart a quarterback to think he can best Seattle’s infamous Legion of Boom by sticking to the high-flying offence that has helped Denver reach this far and you can almost guarantee that he won’t target Richard Sherman at all during the Super Bowl. Of course, he’ll still throw the ball but that’s not where this game will be won and lost.
As so often is the case, this game will be decided in the trenches and whichever teams wins the battle on the ground, wins the game. As such, it will probably be a low-scoring Super Bowl. With than in mind, I’m going for a Seattle win with fewer than 35 points total scored.
Disagree? Of course you do. Let us know why in the comments below.
Those ypg rush yards are totally skewed by CK7 in the championship game , they kept Gore pretty quite , Manning will see more pressure than the awful patriots defense , this really could come down to how much officials throw for holding and so on down field
I taught it was more about the ads and half time show. I predict 6 ads every ten minutes in the first quarter then maybe up to 8 ads in the second quarter then a shitload at half time and then some more after that. Then four hours later after at least 200 ads a team say Denver win it.
Haha ul Leslie, No delete button on the journal. The 9ers offense isn’t even similar to the Broncos. Manning is heads and tails above Kaepernick in his throwing and intelligence.
Everyone saying they haven’t played the best defense yet. Well, the best defense haven’t yet faced the best offense in history. Sherman is one man, he can cover one receiver at a time, Manning has so many options.
Lynch could be key for the SS, if he can get at the Broncos he’s very dangerous. Broncos will win, their offense is too strong and Manning is too smart.
I’ve said it before and now again manning is the smartest QB in the NFL
Sure the Seattle have a great defense
But they still lack the brains to out smart manning
Denver to will by 13
‘m the best corner in the game. When you try me with a sorry receiver like Crabtree, that is the result you are going to get. Don’t you ever talk about me. Crabtree. Don’t you open your mouth about the best, or I’m going to shut it for you really quick. LOB
Can you not see Manning pick apart Sherman in 4/5 receiver sets just like Luck did earlier in the season with TY Hilton? Chancellor will have to come on either Welker or Julius Thomas and you’ll see D Thomas have big opportunities over the top with all the traffic around the line of scrimmage
This years Superbowl is a classic case of Denver’s offense as the irresistable force against Seattle’s D, the immovable object. Manning has not experienced anything remotely as powerful as this Seahawks D, this NFL season. Though it must be added that the Hawks secondary get away with sporting murder on constant no calls for holding and pass interference.
I agree that Denver are going to have to investigate the very limit of their offensive playbook. As Manning will need to audible to quick slants, draw plays, screen play to build methodical time consuming drives. You just can’t get the big pass plays on this Seahawk D.
The X factor I reckon is going to be the Denver defense in this game. I don’t believe that Seattle have a Superbowl calibre passing offense to score the 21 plus points, if required. Fascinating game. My prediction? First overtime SB in history. Broncos to triumph by a field goal.
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The two states that have legalized marijuana are the ones taking part in the Super Bowl.
Enough said.
You think all the players take to the pitch after getting stoned? Your smoking too much of it yourself I’d say.
Gave up a long time ago; you seem like someone that could use a toke though.
Steven, five euro bet with you that you’re calling it wrong and the broncos will take it. Loser donates a fever to charity.
A fiver would be much more charitable on second thought. Making them sick is just mean.
Hey Fergal, I stand over everything I’ve written so happy to oblige. Want to name a charity?
Ye man sure! We’ll go with the same one :)
Nice one, at least someone will gain something out of it.
You guys should’ve got on to Floyd Mayweather, did I hear he put 13 million on Denver? Pretty disgusting really.
Anyone aware of any good sports charities lads? In absence of one, let’s go with age action!
Moochin old people!
Fergal. Great idea. If Broncos will I’ll donate the winning margin x2 to Pieta House.
Davin that’s an old photo of him with the money.
The last time it came up it said he backed himself to win,
Against that Mexican fella.
I think Seattle will pip it. It’ll be close. I just hope it’ll be an exciting game and they won’t cancel each other out.
They definitely won’t! Should be a great game but the broncos will take it.
Broncos will take this one.
Though as a fan of an NFC team I will be cheering for the seahawks.
Guys you need to just support the Seahawks in Sunday. They’re the best !
Those ypg rush yards are totally skewed by CK7 in the championship game , they kept Gore pretty quite , Manning will see more pressure than the awful patriots defense , this really could come down to how much officials throw for holding and so on down field
I taught it was more about the ads and half time show. I predict 6 ads every ten minutes in the first quarter then maybe up to 8 ads in the second quarter then a shitload at half time and then some more after that. Then four hours later after at least 200 ads a team say Denver win it.
Who did you teach that to?
Denver to win by more than 10. 28-17. Surprised you think Peyton will be limited by these Seahawks.
You’re surprised I think the best defence in the league can cause a quarterback problems? Grand so.
Manning needs the game of his life to overcome the seahawks. If the 49ers couldn’t break down their defence. .maning won’t
A record breaking QB. If anyone can…
Manning won’t?! With 5 different receivers with 10+ touchdowns in the regular season?! 9ers offence isn’t even close to the Broncos.
Leslie there is no comparison between the 49ers offence and the Bronco’s! Manning and that offence broke all sorts of records this year.
C’Mon Man!
Haha ul Leslie, No delete button on the journal. The 9ers offense isn’t even similar to the Broncos. Manning is heads and tails above Kaepernick in his throwing and intelligence.
Everyone saying they haven’t played the best defense yet. Well, the best defense haven’t yet faced the best offense in history. Sherman is one man, he can cover one receiver at a time, Manning has so many options.
Lynch could be key for the SS, if he can get at the Broncos he’s very dangerous. Broncos will win, their offense is too strong and Manning is too smart.
12
I’ve said it before and now again manning is the smartest QB in the NFL
Sure the Seattle have a great defense
But they still lack the brains to out smart manning
Denver to will by 13
the boxer mayweather has 15 million on Denver to win by more than 2 points he must think there a banker ha ha
‘m the best corner in the game. When you try me with a sorry receiver like Crabtree, that is the result you are going to get. Don’t you ever talk about me. Crabtree. Don’t you open your mouth about the best, or I’m going to shut it for you really quick. LOB
Can you not see Manning pick apart Sherman in 4/5 receiver sets just like Luck did earlier in the season with TY Hilton? Chancellor will have to come on either Welker or Julius Thomas and you’ll see D Thomas have big opportunities over the top with all the traffic around the line of scrimmage
I think it will be around 49 points scored myself
Seriously don’t get this American football lark. Just too stop start. Hard to watch a sport that isn’t free flowing
This years Superbowl is a classic case of Denver’s offense as the irresistable force against Seattle’s D, the immovable object. Manning has not experienced anything remotely as powerful as this Seahawks D, this NFL season. Though it must be added that the Hawks secondary get away with sporting murder on constant no calls for holding and pass interference.
I agree that Denver are going to have to investigate the very limit of their offensive playbook. As Manning will need to audible to quick slants, draw plays, screen play to build methodical time consuming drives. You just can’t get the big pass plays on this Seahawk D.
The X factor I reckon is going to be the Denver defense in this game. I don’t believe that Seattle have a Superbowl calibre passing offense to score the 21 plus points, if required. Fascinating game. My prediction? First overtime SB in history. Broncos to triumph by a field goal.
You may not be too far wrong, first ot sb ever
http://on.nfl.com/1edIWjj
High Bob?
Laces out dan….