Attention will soon turn to the Heineken Cup and the wonderful entertainment it always provides, but for Joe Schmidt and his fellow Northern Hemisphere international coaches, planning for the 2014 Six Nations will be getting underway.
Here’s the outlook for what lies ahead, based on what we saw this month.
Ireland
Judged on Sunday’s performance against the All Blacks, Ireland would be favourites for the Six Nations but we must not forget the poor performance against the Wallabies the week before. Joe Schmidt has defended that game, stressing that it is not as bad on second viewing.
However, if Ireland are that weak against England, France and Wales, they will be beaten well. That said, if we can produce performances like the one against New Zealand over the course of February and March, Ireland will win a Grand Slam.
We have been at this point before with the national team. A huge one-off performance gives us hope, before Ireland slip back to inconsistency. The fact that Joe Schmidt will have more time to put his imprint on the team suggests this time will be different.
Prediction: First
Wales
Warren Gatland’s side actually have one more November Test to negotiate, so perhaps we will need to review our judgement after Saturday’s clash with Australia. South Africa came to Cardiff three weekends ago and overcame the Welsh in the collisions, but the opposite is likely to occur in the Six Nations.
With Jonathan Davies and Jamie Roberts out injured, the Welsh midfield will be an area of concern, but with the likes of Richard Hibbard, Toby Faletau and Sam Warburton leading from the front, Gatland’s men have the personnel to win another European crown.
It’s sometimes obvious what is coming from the Welsh, but that doesn’t make them any easier to stop.
Prediction: Second
England
Stuart Lancaster’s charges pushed the All Blacks close in what was their most impressive display of the November window. The wins over Australia and Argentina before that were good results, but incomplete performances.
England have a pack to compete and control any team in the world, but there are still question marks over their midfield. Owen Farrell remains a limited playmaker, and pressure is now on Billy Twelvetrees to assume that mantle at inside centre.
Manu Tuilagi will be missing again for the Six Nations and Joel Tomkins is just nowhere near that class. If England can start to create line-breaks and reward their forwards’ power, they will be difficult to beat.
Prediction: Third
Scotland
A hit and miss autumn for the Scots, with a little more of the latter. Scott Johnson’s side got off to a strong start with the 42-17 win over Japan, running in six tries but showing glimpses of defensive frailty.
The 28-0 loss to South Africa was largely down to the ‘Boks brilliance, but Scotland did make too many errors. There were encouraging signs in last weekend’s 21-15 defeat to Australia, but the Scots left a couple of try-scoring chances unconverted.
Johnson doesn’t have a bad group of players to work with, but too often Scotland fail to reach the potential sum of their parts. Ireland should be able to start the 2014 Six Nations on the right note with a home win against their Celtic rivals.
Prediction: Fifth
France
There were signs of improvement for Phillip Saint-André’s team this November. Their attacking play was more cohesive, directed by Castres out-half Rémi Talès and utilising the gifts of Wesley Fofana and the daring fullback Brice Dulin.
Doubts remain over the coach himself, but France’s squad is laden with quality players. Les Bleus managed to test the All Blacks in Paris before a routine 38-18 win over Tonga in Le Havre. Last weekend’s 19-10 defeat to South Africa was largely about the sheer strength of the ‘Boks defence.
France attacked with organisation and invention, but Heyneke Meyer’s side are impossible to break down. As ever, France have the ability to self-destruct, but with England and Ireland at home this season, Saint-André’s side are set up nicely.
Prediction: Fourth
Italy
Favourites to prop up the bottom of the table in this season’s version of the Six Nations after a disappointing autumn series. Jacques Brunel’s desire for Italy to play a more expansive game plan appears to have blunted their existing edge in the pack, never more obvious than during last weekend’s 19-14 defeat to Argentina in Rome.
A 50-20 loss to Australia featured some excellent attacking play, particularly the wonderful counter-attack which ended with Luke McClean scoring but defensively, Italy were a shambles. A 37-31 win against an ill-disciplined Fiji gave some relief, but Brunel’s men seem to have gone backwards since beating Ireland and France last season.
Prediction: Sixth
How do you see the Six Nations finishing in 2014? Will there be a Grand Slam or a Wooden Spoon? Get your early predictions in below.
