TO BORROW A gimmick from ESPN writer Bill Simmons, is Shane Long overrated, underrated or properly rated?
Well, we know what Ronald Koeman and Southampton think already. They wrote a cheque (do people still do that?) worth £12 million for the Tipperary man despite the fact that he played 30 league games last year (15 apiece for West Brom and Hull) and scored just seven goals. Going on that season alone, you have to admire Hull for doing some wheeling and dealing that ex-manager/serial chancer Phil Brown would have been proud of.
The question is whether Shane Long is worth that money or anywhere near it? Compare these two players.
Player A: 21 appearances, two goals. 29 appearances, three goals. 32 appearances, eight goals. 34 appearances, eight goals. 30 appearances, seven goals. Total: 146 appearances, 28 goals.
Player B: 38 appearances, 15 goals. 37 appearances, 13 goals. Total: 75 appearances, 28 goals.
Player A is Shane Long and player B is Rickie Lambert and that is their respective Premier League season by season record. Lambert has equaled Long’s goal tally in almost half the games and more than half the seasons. This summer, Shane Long cost a club £12 million and Lambert cost a club £4m.
There is something wrong there and from those numbers the only conclusion to draw is that Shane Long is overrated, while Lambert, who has been a bit of a punchline this summer, is a bit underrated (he even has a nice little goals and assists compilation).
Long’s inflated value likely stems from the fact that even when he isn’t scoring he SEEMS to be playing well — running the channels, giving decent passes to his team-mates etc.
But a striker who plays well without scoring is identical to a guy who chats up a load of girls on a night out but always ends up alone in Abrakebabra eating a doner kebab at the end of the night. Fair play on your achievement, but without the end product it is reasonably worthless.
Having said that, if Long improves his finishing he can justify his £12 million price tag. Luis Suarez’s first full season with Liverpool was marred by some heinous misses; this was on the opening day against Sunderland and sums up his season nicely (31 games and just 11 goals).
Without an improvement with his finishing Long will remain what he has always been — a first or second option on one of the bottom five or six clubs. Whether he improves will be down to him.
Long has a similar record to another Irish striker, Kevin Doyle. Doyle was another player who always seemed to do well but never scored enough goals. Eventually teams just stopped playing him because starting that kind of striker just isn’t sustainable.
Long’s international record is slightly better (47 games and 11 goals so it’s a little higher than his strike rate in the Premier League) but even then, he only has one competitive goal to his name and that was back in 2010. What got Irish fans so enthusiastic about Long was that lovely header against England. In an ideal footballing world, those Long headers would be the rule rather than the exception. (apologies for the poor quality, somehow this one was the best)
Hell, some (not too bright) English fans were so impressed with Long’s display that they were clamoring for his call up to the England squad months later.
People were already whispering about Southampton’s sleeper relegation prospects before they replaced Lambert (underrated) with Long (overrated). Hopefully he spent the summer practicing his finishing like Suarez did after the 2011-2012 season. If not, it could be a long year for the striker and Southampton as they both learn what the true cost of £12m pounds can be.
What do you think of the move and Long’s price tag?
