TO BORROW A gimmick from ESPN writer Bill Simmons, is Shane Long overrated, underrated or properly rated?
Well, we know what Ronald Koeman and Southampton think already. They wrote a cheque (do people still do that?) worth £12 million for the Tipperary man despite the fact that he played 30 league games last year (15 apiece for West Brom and Hull) and scored just seven goals. Going on that season alone, you have to admire Hull for doing some wheeling and dealing that ex-manager/serial chancer Phil Brown would have been proud of.
The question is whether Shane Long is worth that money or anywhere near it? Compare these two players.
Player A: 21 appearances, two goals. 29 appearances, three goals. 32 appearances, eight goals. 34 appearances, eight goals. 30 appearances, seven goals. Total: 146 appearances, 28 goals.
Player B: 38 appearances, 15 goals. 37 appearances, 13 goals. Total: 75 appearances, 28 goals.
Player A is Shane Long and player B is Rickie Lambert and that is their respective Premier League season by season record. Lambert has equaled Long’s goal tally in almost half the games and more than half the seasons. This summer, Shane Long cost a club £12 million and Lambert cost a club £4m.
There is something wrong there and from those numbers the only conclusion to draw is that Shane Long is overrated, while Lambert, who has been a bit of a punchline this summer, is a bit underrated (he even has a nice little goals and assists compilation).
Long’s inflated value likely stems from the fact that even when he isn’t scoring he SEEMS to be playing well — running the channels, giving decent passes to his team-mates etc.
But a striker who plays well without scoring is identical to a guy who chats up a load of girls on a night out but always ends up alone in Abrakebabra eating a doner kebab at the end of the night. Fair play on your achievement, but without the end product it is reasonably worthless.
Having said that, if Long improves his finishing he can justify his £12 million price tag. Luis Suarez’s first full season with Liverpool was marred by some heinous misses; this was on the opening day against Sunderland and sums up his season nicely (31 games and just 11 goals).
Without an improvement with his finishing Long will remain what he has always been — a first or second option on one of the bottom five or six clubs. Whether he improves will be down to him.
Long has a similar record to another Irish striker, Kevin Doyle. Doyle was another player who always seemed to do well but never scored enough goals. Eventually teams just stopped playing him because starting that kind of striker just isn’t sustainable.
Long’s international record is slightly better (47 games and 11 goals so it’s a little higher than his strike rate in the Premier League) but even then, he only has one competitive goal to his name and that was back in 2010. What got Irish fans so enthusiastic about Long was that lovely header against England. In an ideal footballing world, those Long headers would be the rule rather than the exception. (apologies for the poor quality, somehow this one was the best)
Hell, some (not too bright) English fans were so impressed with Long’s display that they were clamoring for his call up to the England squad months later.
People were already whispering about Southampton’s sleeper relegation prospects before they replaced Lambert (underrated) with Long (overrated). Hopefully he spent the summer practicing his finishing like Suarez did after the 2011-2012 season. If not, it could be a long year for the striker and Southampton as they both learn what the true cost of £12m pounds can be.
What do you think of the move and Long’s price tag?
He may not be the best finisher in Ireland but my god does he work his arse off and the chances he creates I think he will fit in very well at Southampton
People comparing Long to Lambert in terms of cold statistics aren’t taking lots of factors into account. Like Lambert is a penalty taker which accounts for a fair percentage of his goals while Long just wins pens. Or a large portion of Long’s PL appearances were sub appearance as a callow youth for Reading. Lambert played at the tip of an array of exciting football talents like Lallana and Rodriguez while Long was chasing hopeless causes at WBA. Lambert arrived in the top flight full formed have worked on his game as he climbed admirably from the lower leagues, but Long’s learning curve was mostly in the PL where the stats are being used to beat him now. Long’s finishing could definitely use some work but even at this stage he is a diamond in the rough, with the right manager and the right service there is no reason he could not start to score more goals. Much like Doyle did on the rare occasion he played in front of a high flying team like Reading after their promotion when he was banging them in….
Excellent points. That comparison between long and lambert was ridiculous especially considering the 5 yr age gap and the remaining length of their contracts
Spot on lazy journalism sure we all know that everyone knows statistics are right 74% of the time. Doesnt matter how many he scores it about how many points on the board his team gets. Better to miss two and win and all that…
Please do a comparison with andy Carroll please, how much did he cost?
Not really much to be gained by comparing Longs move with that act of madness.
I think he’s a decent enough player. Don’t think he’s with 12 million, Johnny Giles probably describes him best……a game lad!!
I think he needs to stop looking at the ball before he takes a shot. Or is that stupid?
The move to Hull was never really going to work will Jelovic moving on the same day from Everton. 12 million is about right for a player like him this day and age and the all important rule of having a certain number of home grown players ( which extends to Irish players) will always cause a price inflation . This move could be ideals for him and Ireland where he is now no longer in the shadows of others and needs to be the main man up front . I cant see why this won’t go well if he hits the ground running
Are irish players considered home players? Never knew that. How’s that work?
Why hasn’t Ricky lambert gotten an Irish callup?
Shane Long is currently Ireland’s best striker, he is certainly worth that money but the club he signing for has sold their best assets to Liverpool (and everybody else), so he now joins a depleted team with pretty average players. Shane Long will only live up to his full potential if surrounded by good players. This is a bad move for him as he’ll be used as the scapegoat for Southampton’s inevitable relegation.
He should go down with the ship if they do get relegated. Some of these ex reading lads make a habit of changing clubs every year or should I say relegation battling clubs every year ie after they are relegated like Stephen hunt and Kevin Doyle
Explain how doyle played for wolves in dont know what they call it now but the old 3rd division? Skybet league 1 ?
He needs to cut back on his work down the wings chasing down. It’s his job to job to score goals so he should concentrate on getting in the box and getting on the end of more chances.
Spent many a night in Abra. Nothing better than a good kebab after a night out. Love the Mexican ground beef tho!!
He works really hard and always puts a shift in.id be worried about the lack of quality Southampton have to create the chances for him.if they get relegated and he has a poor season I can’t see him getting in the premiership again because of his poor scoring record,he’s probably championship class in reality though.
Every time I hear ” Southampton ” I think of the Titanic!