Queen Mother Preview: can Big Zeb mastermind back-to-back victories?

When: Today, 3:20

Distance: 2m

Prize Money: £182,000 (winner)

Who won in 2010: Big Zeb (10/1)

Latest Odds: 3/1 Big Zeb; 7/2 Master Minded; 7/1 Sizing Europe; 15/2 Somersby; 9/1 Captain Cee Bee, Woolcombe Folly; 11/1 Golden Silver; 16/1 Bar

The last 12 months have thrown up precious little evidence to suggest that Irish chaser Big Zeb might not be able to defend the crown which he won here last year. The traditional concern about the horse – his tendency to lose concentration and blunder through fences – appears to have significantly subsided in recent outings. If the rain holds off and the going stays good, Barry Geraghty’s mount will be very difficult to beat.

On the other hand, his chief opponent Master Minded is praying for rain. It’s no secret that the two-time champion will need more than a little give in the turf if he is to run to his true potential, a fact emphasised by trainer Paul Nicholls time and time again. His wins in 2008 and 2009 prove that he knows how to get the job done, but his inconsistency is slightly worrying, leading some to speculate that he is not the same horse that he once was.

When previewing the race last week, the Racing Post noted an interesting trend – the last 10 winners have all been experienced chasers, having run at least eight times over fences. On that basis, they rule out both Somersby and Woolcombe Folly, perhaps prematurely. The former ran Master Minded a very close second in Victor Chandler Chase at Ascot the last time out, while the latter has improved dramatically since disappointing in last year’s Arkle.

The winner of that contest, Henry de Bromhead’s Sizing Europe, also finds himself among the entries for today’s feature – Arkle winners have a fantastic record when running in the following year’s Queen Mother. There are some question marks about his ability to keep pace with Grade One company over the shorter distance, and he will need to reverse placings with both Golden Silver and Big Zeb from the Tied Cottage Chase.

Golden Silver is not without merits himself, with Willie Mullins highlighting his recent triumph over Big Zeb and confidently predicting that the horse should at least run into a place.

He prefers a bit of give in the ground though, so more attractive each-way prospects are provided by Tony McCoy aboard 2008′s Supreme Novice Captain Cee Bee whom the going should suit.

TheScore says: With the ground as good as it is, Big Zeb should come home ahead of Master Minded. If you don’t fancy the champion to retain his crown, Sizing Europe or Captain Cee Bee are the ones to go for.