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Have you any chance of making the semi? ©INPHO/Presseye/Brian Thompson
Provincial

Pro12 Cheat Sheet: Your guide to the weekend's rugby action

There are two remaining semi-final places up for grabs, so we’ve got the calculator out to examine the permutations for the four Irish provinces.

Warriors v Connacht

When: Saturday 7.30

Where to watch: TG4

Endgame: To avoid facing Leinster in the semi-final, Sean Lineen’s men simply must beat Connacht and hope Ulster can put in a repeat performance at Thomond Park.

Lineen is facing an in-form western province buoyed by the news that they will play Heineken Cup rugby again next year.

Eric Elwood’s side sit eighth in the table and they cannot go any higher. 13 points above them are the Cardiff Blues, but they could conceivably drop two places if results go against them – namely the Dragons beating Leinster at Rodney Parade and Treviso felling Edinburgh in Murrayfield.

Team News:

Elwood has made three changes from the side to beat Aironi, Adrain Flavin comes in at hooker, Eoin Griffin at centre and Johnny O’Connor has made Ray Ofisa wait for his final appearance for the province.

Connacht back row, John Muldoon highlighted the array of motivation his opposition will have on Saturday:

“Their coach is leaving, they’re leaving Firhill and they are also gunning for a top four position so we know the pressure’s on them and they’ll be coming out all guns blazing but at the same time we’re looking to cause an upset and finish a record 8th, that would be a very good return for us this season.”

Warriors: Hogg; Aramburu (capt.), Dunbar, Morrison, van der Merwe; Weir, Pyrgos: Welsh, Hall, Low; Ryder, Gray; Harley, Fusaro, Barclay.

Replacments: McArthur, Cusack, Grant, Kellock, Forrester, Cusiter, Jackson, Shaw.

Connacht: Duffy (capt.); Tonetti, Griffin, Fa’afili, O’Halloran; Nikora, Murphy: Buckley, Flavin, Loughney; Swift, McCarthy; Muldoon, O’Connor, Naoupu.

Replacements: Murphy, Maguire, Ah You, Kearney, Ofisa, O’Donohoe, Jarvis, Loxton.

Munster v Ulster

When: Saturday 7.30

Where to watch: (If not Thomond Park) RTE

Endgame: After putting their semi-final place to good use, Ulster return to the scene of the game that really cemented them as serious contenders.

If Munster were worried that their season might peter out, then this is the game to ease their worries. Nothing gets Munster wound up better than the prospect of revenge and their fate rests with their lust for exacting that revenge.

Ulster have an outside chance of making the play-offs, but they would need Connacht to win and deny Glasgow a bonus point, while themselves grounding four times on the way to beating Munster. There’ll be no Heineken Cup final preview in the Pro12 semis and Brian McLaughlin appears to have accepted that:

“We are reliant on other results but we will approach the game trying to do our job and we will wait to hear other results coming through. Obviously the ideal outcome is to get a semi-final spot but we realise it’s unlikely.”

A bonus point win would seal third place for Munster, anything less than that and they will be relying on Connacht to decree whether they travel to face the Ospreys or Leinster.

Team News:

McGahan is one of many making their last competitive appearance at Thomond Park. On the playing side, Lifemi Mafi and Mick O’Driscoll will make their final bow from the start, while Tomas O’Leary will hope to spring off the bench at some point.

Ronan O’Gara’s absence means Ian Keatley is allowed continue his apprenticeship at fly-half. Ivan Dineen is preferred to partner Mafi as Keith Earls continues to recover from injury, he is on the bench if required.

McLaughlin’s second last game in charge of Ulster sees him make 10 changes from the side which beat Edinburgh. Andrew Trimble, Paddy Jackson, Declan Fitzpatrick, Dan Tuohy and Willie Faloon are the men to retain their jerseys. Ian humphreys has been left on the bench for a second week in a row.

Munster: Jones; Murphy, Dineen, Mafi, Zebo; Keatley, Murray: du Preez, Sherry, Botha; O’Driscoll, O’Connell; Ryan, O’Donnell, O’Mahony.

Replacements: Varley, Kilcoyne, Archer, O’Callaghan, Butler, O’Leary, Deasy, Earls.

Ulster: D’Arcy; Trimble, Spence, Whitten, Cochrane; Jackson, Marshall: McAllister, Brady (capt.), Fitzpatrick; Stevenson, Tuohy; Henderson, Faloon, Diack.

Replacements: N Annett, C Black, T Court, M McComish, A Birch, B McIlroy, I Humphreys, C Gilroy.

Sean Cronin, who starts for Leinster, enjoying the company of our new microphone this week – ©INPHO/Cathal Noonan

Dragons V Leinster

When: Saturday 7.30

Where to watch: Not on TV

Endgame: For Leinster (as it has been for a few weeks) it’s just a matter keeping the wheels turning ahead of bigger games to come.

Top spot and a home semi-final is already secure. So too, is their berth in the Heineken Cup final. After holding on in Bordeaux is a dark evening in Newport going to be enough to inspire them to victory?

The Dragons are third from bottom, they can’t be caught by Edinburgh.

Team News:

There were bumps and bruises aplenty coming out of France, but Isaac Boss was the only man ruled out of this weekend through injury. Most of the other big names are rested, though Eoin Reddan and Sean Cronin, who appeared in the second half against Clermont are given a chance to stake their claim for a starting jersey.

Kevin McLaughlin captains the side from the back row where he is joined by Dominic Ryan and Leo Auva’a.

There is a familiar name at fullback, but it’s Dave Kearney moved in from his usual wing position. Noel Reid and Brendan Macken team up again in midfield as Joe Schmidt rewards many of his young prospects for a commendable season.

Dragons: Amos; Harries, Hughes, Smith, Brew; Robling, W Evans: Williams, Parry, Buck; Charteris (capt.) Sidoli; Lydiate, Evans, Faletau.

Replacements: Jones, Price, Way, Groves, Brown, J Evans Leach, Dixon.

Leinster: D Kearney; Conway, Macken, Reid, Carr; Madigan, Reddan: J McGrath, Cronin, White; Toner, Browne, McLaughlin (capt.), Ryan, Auva’a.

Replacements: Dundon, Van Der Merwe, Hagan, Flanagan, Murphy, L McGrath, Nacewa, Hudson.

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