THE LEOPARDSTOWN CHRISTMAS Festival continues today with a card that centres around the Paddy Power Dial-A-Bet Chase and favourite Big Zeb.
Colm Murphy’s stable star bids to land a hat-trick in the Grade One over an extended two miles, and comes in to the race in as good form as ever.
Despite turning 11 in a matter of days, the former Queen Mother Champion Chase winner’s ability has shown no signs of waning and last month’s penalty defying victory over the re-opposing Noble Prince and Forpaddydeplasterer means he will prove very difficult to beat.
Apart from second-season chaser Saludos, Big Zeb has faced all his other rivals on at least one occasion over fences without tasting defeat. Indeed likely second-favourite Golden Silver has lost to the defending champion seven times in the last two years, and he looked to be well under-par earlier this month when winning the Hilly-Way rather fortunately following the last fence fall of his rival.
At one stage of his career good ground seemed vital to Big Zeb’s success, but in recent seasons he has shown an admirable versatility in that respect, and the jumping errors that once dogged him have become a thing of the past.
Everything in the form book says that off level weights Murphy’s horse must win. Nothing is ever certain in steeple-chasing, but it very difficult to see anything improving past Robbie Power’s mount; and he looks to be a safe enough bet even at 4/6.
The Grade One Paddy Power.com Future Champions Hurdle has attracted only five runners, due mainly to the presence of long odds-on favourite Sous Les Cieux. Willie Mullins’ French import has shown his class already this year with a top-level victory in the Royal Bond at Fairyhouse, but it’s worth remembering that the same trainer had a 1/4 shot turned over in the same race last year in the form of Zaidpour.
Lighting is unlikely to strike twice though, and this horse has had longer to recover from his previous race than Zaidpour was allowed. However, current odds of 1/2 are not particularly appealing given that novices are not the most consistent bunch – and the race is not much of a betting heat.
In terms of finding a healthy priced winner, the most intriguing runners lie in the card’s handicaps.
The Paddypower.com Handicap Hurdle could go the way of Cass Bligh. After falling on his debut over fences the seven-year-old now reverts to timber, and could still be on a competitive mark. While his last two performances in the spring were a little underwhelming, his run over course and distance in February resulted in a solid second to the subsequent improver Pittoni.
The fact that he was sent off at 2/1 for his chase debut despite the presence of a Grade One placed Willie Mullins hurdler suggests that a bold bid was expected, and if he returns here in the same form that he must have been showing at home then he must have a good chance.
The booking of Ruby Walsh is an obvious positive, and may suggest confidence in the selection.
The richly endowed Paddy Power Chase is always an excellent betting heat, and a very tough puzzle to solve. With 28 runners competing for over €100,000, many will have been laid out for the race and a case can be made for any number. One that certainly appeals is David Pipe’s Sona Sasta. Having been a lowly-rated hurdler, the former point-to-point winner improved vastly for a switch to fences last season. A sixth-place finish behind Chicago Grey in the four mile Amateur riders’ race at the Cheltenham festival was a fair final run, and his recent second behind Welsh National fancy Le Beau Bai confirmed that he remains at a fair mark.
The English raider’s stamina for the three-miles on soft ground looks assured, and the fact that Pipe’s other Leopardstown runner Notus de la Tour ran so well behind Blackstairsmountain is further reason to believe that the trip across may not be in vain.
Selections:
Cass Bligh 1pt win @ 11/1 Paddy Power
Sona Sasta 1pt e/w @ 15/1 William Hill, or 12/1 generally.
