SO THE ONLY Major outside of America is upon us, the British Open or the Open Championship (as you see fit).

The one Major of the year where we don’t have to stay up until the small hours to see the closing holes.

The British Open has thrown up a lot of first-time winners over the years, none more surprising than Ben Curtis who won in 2003 at Royal St George’s, the venue for this year’s renewal. Six of the last 10 Open winners took home their first Major. The only exceptions are Tiger Woods (who else?), Ernie Els and Pádraig Harrington who won his second-in-a-row in 2009.

Rory McIlroy is justifiably the favourite, but there are a host of others who could continue the trend by claiming their maiden Major. Lee Westwood and Luke Donald are both valued as second-favourites and are followed not too far behind by the likes of Sergio Garcia, Nick Watney and Steve Stricker, the latter two being the most recent winners on the PGA Tour.

Many of those first-time winners, however, have also been surprise victors. Refer again to Curtis, but also think of Todd Hamilton and last year’s winner Louis Oosthuizen.

So where does that leave us in trying to predict a winner?

Even though he hasn’t played since his U.S. Open triumph, it’s hard to look past Rory McIlroy. We all knew he was a player of immense ability and talent and one can only assume that a Major victory has given his confidence and self-belief an untold boost.

Go back to last year. McIlroy shot a record-breaking nine-under par 63 in the opening round. This was arguably the very first little step on the road to his victory at Congressional. It was the first time he had ever lead in a Major and naturally the spotlight shone with great intensity. Day two was a disaster for Rory – a full 17 shots worse than his opening round. Clearly lessons were learned though.

The debate in the build up to this week is whether he will be sharp enough given that he hasn’t played competitively since his US Open win on June 19th. Playing competitive golf and practicing are certainly worlds apart when it comes to performing, but if McIlroy is to continue where he left off, he’s going to have a good week ahead of him.

Last weekend’s respective tour winners were Luke Donald and Steve Stricker. Both players would certainly have been in the mix, regardless of their most immediate form, but, as with McIlroy, the self-belief and confidence that can be gained from a win could make the difference for both players.

Jason Day has been the runner-up in the last two Majors and is also likely to have a big part to play as the drama- unfolds on Sunday.

Early reports from the course suggest that it is not set up as difficult as it could be, particularly from the tee. The Guardian’s Lawrence Donegan even went so far as to say that he fancied Lee Westwood to win this week but “having looked at the course, I’m not so sure. Might not be difficult enough.”

BBC golf correspondent echoed these sentiments when he said that the “rough looks pretty manageable – from what I’ve seen players will have to be very wayward to find the thick stuff”.

That says a lot.

It also brings much more of the field into play. It being a Major and a links golf course, players will still be required to think their way around the course, strategy will be highly important, and errors will need to be kept to a minimum, but from the above reports it seems as though mistakes may not be as heavily punished as we expect from a Major Championship.

Big shout

Undoubtedly the marquee group contains Ernie Els, Rory McIlroy and Rickie Fowler, but eyes will have to be stretched over far more than just a few high-profile groups.

What about Henrik Stenson? Arguably the most talented of all the Swedes, he has gone through the horrors over the last 18 months or so and slipped out of the world’s top 100. Despite his troubles, however, he managed to finish third at the Open last year, just as he did in 2008, while he came 13th in 2009.

His driving of the ball has been his main weakness, but that may not be such an impediment if we are to believe the above reports. He has clearly managed to find form at the Open and given the signs of a resurgence he showed at the US Open last month, Stenson is this column’s pick to be the surprise Open winner.

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