FIRST OF ALL, forgive a sense of déjà vu. Because it’s not just a feeling. It’s true.
Ireland have been involved in more official play-offs than any other country in the world.
But that sense of being-here-before also applies to the debate around the latest play-off, Ireland’s seventh in total.
Because the argument that has raged throughout Giovanni Trapattoni’s tenure is finally reaching tipping point. By Tuesday, we’ll know.
Either qualification will completely justify the manager’s cautious style. Or failure will vindicate all of his critics over the past four years. The country’s most fractious tactical debate since Eamon Dunphy threw a pen across a studio will have ended.
Of course, much more importantly than that mere colour, we’ll know whether a decade of frustration will at last be ended too. Ireland might see an international tournament for the first time in 10 years.
It’s that simple. As Robbie Keane said yesterday, “this is what it’s all about… this is what it comes down to.”
Throughout that press conference, Keane radiated an admirable air of quiet confidence and focus.
Terrace talk
Among many fans and observers that air has evolved into outright cockiness. There is a feeling that, if Ireland cannot eliminate Estonia, then they may as well give up international football.
And, while it would of course be a disgrace if the players descended into that kind of thinking – as well as proving anathema to the concentrated approach that has made them favourites – it’s perfectly justified for those outside the camp.
Because, removing all attached sentiment – and attempting to look at this play-off logically and rationally – the fact is that Ireland are a far stronger team.
Sure, Estonia did manage to beat Slovenia and Serbia in their qualification group. But that was as reflective of the ludicrously open nature of current international football as their own defeats to the Faroe Islands and the Basque Country over the last year. In short, Slovenia and Serbia are not the teams that qualified for last year’s World Cup.
And Estonia themselves don’t have the kind of record that generally lends itself to qualification. Overall, they’ve lost four games out of 10. In those 10, they also conceded 14 goals – the worst record of all teams who finished in the top two of their group. If nothing else, they are highly erratic whereas Ireland are highly stable.
Should Estonia qualify, they’d also be the smallest nation to reach a European Championships by a good 700,000 people. With a population of 1.3m, that’s behind Slovenia’s two, and Latvia’s 2.3m
While it’s often been argued here that international football has never been more open to small teams, there is a line. And that is reflected in the fact that Estonia are a potentially dangerous team – but still a hugely beatable one.
Essentially, if Ireland maintain the kind of approach that has defined their last 10 games, it’s very hard to see the side not qualifying.
Estonia would struggle to open up a diligent defence that is nowhere near as open as that of Slovenia or Serbia. And, against a relatively porous Estonian backline, it would only be a matter of time until Ireland got sufficient opportunities to win the tie.
The key, for once, is to keep the game tight. Because Estonia only thrive when given space on the break. So, somewhat fittingly, the kind of cautious approach that has characterised Trapattoni’s tenure, could actually be perfect to securing its ultimate goal: qualification.
On the other hand, though, the Estonian defence is there to be got at. If Ireland assume the brio of Bari and Paris in the opening minutes then this tie can be killed with away goals early on.
Either way, though, Ireland can realistically hope for a third, more favourable feeling of déjà vu: a first European Championship in 24 years.
Luck of the draw
Facing their seventh tonight, Ireland have already been in more official play-offs than any other country in the world.
The 2002 win over Iran, however, ensures that we don’t have the worst record in them. That dishonour foes to Ukraine.
P W L
Spain 4 4 0
Slovenia 4 3 1
Turkey 4 2 2
Scotland 3 1 2
Russia 3 1 2
Ireland 6 1 5
Australia 5 1 4
Israel 3 0 3
Ukraine 4 0 4
