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The Ireland fans were in fine voice despite the disappointing result yesterday. Niall Carson/PA Wire/Press Association Images

FYI: Can Ireland still qualify with four points and other Group C permutations

We’ve done the calculations so you don’t have to, looking at the various potential Euro 2012 outcomes.

Can Ireland still qualify with four points?

Yes, it’s still possible. Although it’s likely dependent on Croatia performing well in their subsequent matches. For example, Ireland could qualify if they draw with Spain and beat Italy, provided Croatia avoid a loss against both Spain and Italy.

Can Ireland still qualify on four points if Croatia lose one or both of their games?

It depends. If Croatia lose to Spain and beat Italy, they’ll need to beat Spain and get at least a draw with Italy. If Croatia beat Spain and lose to Italy, they’ll need to beat Italy and secure a draw or better against Spain. Keep in mind that if two teams end up level on points, the team that triumphed when the two sides in question met will ultimately progress.

But if Ireland draw with Spain and beat Italy, and Croatia draw with Spain and lose to Italy, it would probably come down to goal difference in the games not involving Spain (who would be eliminated on three points).

However, if Ireland draw with Spain and beat Italy, and Croatia draw with Italy and lose to Spain, Spain will qualify top on five points and Croatia will finish second on four points by virtue of the fact that they have a better head-to-head record with Ireland.

In the highly unlikely scenario that Ireland get six points, is there any chance that they’ll miss out on qualification?

No. Although they’ll still be relying on Croatia failing to win both their remaining games in order for them to top the group and be awarded with a (presumably) less daunting quarter-final match, given the winners of Group C will face the runner-up in Group D and vice versa.

If Ireland lose against either Spain or Italy, are they definitely out?

Yes.

Was calculating all these potential outcomes even more taxing than the recent Leaving Cert Higher Level Maths paper?

Yes

Read: Croatia match attracted highest RTE audience since 1994 World Cup>

Read: Richard Dunne takes no part in training in Gdynia>

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55 Comments
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    Mute richard ferris
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    Jun 11th 2012, 7:17 PM

    It’s simple…we are out

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    Mute Keith
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    Jun 12th 2012, 2:10 AM

    They need to be let of the leash against Spain, they will give us chances and we can take them Sunday I think the players got to worked up before kick off and we didn’t get rub of the green,we looked really bad but I hope we can do better then that..

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    Mute Toureag
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    Jun 11th 2012, 7:48 PM

    Maybe sound silly but I’m conceived Ireland our beloved country can beat Spain by surprise on Thursday! Come on the green boys.

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    Mute Gis Bayertz
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    Jun 11th 2012, 8:19 PM

    Wake up please

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    Mute Sean Hennessy
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    Jun 11th 2012, 8:38 PM

    Being a catholic country I guess blind faith is second nature..

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    Mute Séamus Ó Lochlainn
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    Jun 11th 2012, 10:30 PM

    sounds like you were conceived alright – yesterday!

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    Mute Graham Carrick
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    Jun 12th 2012, 9:07 AM

    I can see an Ireland in Paris performance and we will win 1 nil. Dare to believe

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    Mute Michael Farrelly
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    Jun 11th 2012, 7:24 PM

    no – we are not good enough

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    Mute Ciara O'Halloran
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    Jun 11th 2012, 7:51 PM

    Shame on the nay sayers… Have a bit of faith, crack a smile. You might even enjoy yourselves! COYBIG!

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    Mute Mick Jones
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    Jun 11th 2012, 7:25 PM

    We can forget about it at this stage. The lads were crap.

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    Mute Dean Pritchard
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    Jun 11th 2012, 7:41 PM

    The lads will be home next Tuesday. Last night was a disgrace. End of story.

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    Mute Elrat
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    Jun 11th 2012, 7:48 PM

    Disgrace – bit harsh – they tried but were not good enough

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    Mute Karl Cranny
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    Jun 11th 2012, 8:28 PM

    Jeez, with fans like us, who needs enemies.

    Not saying that we were great or anything, but kind of felt sorry for the team and cannot believe the bitterness I am reading on these forums. Look at the bloody group we got, what do people out there expect?

    Criticism is fine, just find that some of you out there are going a little overboard on the harshness.

    24 years since we last qualified for the Euros (that was the first football tournament that I ever watched!) and it is only the second time that we have ever qualified for the competition, so I think Trap at least deserves to do as he pleases (and I am sure that he will be happy to live with the consequences).

    I remember the days when we used to support the boys in green regardless, seems all but a distant memory now… I will be supporting them no matter what.

    On a final note – those calling for Liam Brady or Roy Keane for Manager make me laugh.

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    Mute Popcorn
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    Jun 11th 2012, 7:48 PM

    Time to get real. At this stage I’m looking for a team to adopt for the rest of the tournament.

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    Mute Tom Curtis
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    Jun 11th 2012, 8:10 PM

    Fair play to Trap for qualifying but his dinosaur football was badly exposed last night. As Bilic said before the game he knew exactly how Ireland were going to play before the game even kicked off. At 3-1 it was set up for McClean to come on, run at a deep lying Croat defence and lift the Irish crowd. Instead he brought on our 5th choice striker and played him out of position. Says it all. His mantra that we don’t have the quality rings hollow when he refuses to play the few quality players we do have! No Coleman, McCarthy, Houlahan or McClean in the starting 11 yet he finds a place for the invisible man Whelan?

    68
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    Mute Pete Ness
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    Jun 11th 2012, 8:18 PM

    Passion won’t do it, you need basic skills like keeping the ball to even have a hope
    I’m taking my girl out for a meal on thursday instead.

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    Mute fitszenpatrik
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    Jun 11th 2012, 8:29 PM

    Mr bilic said afterwards that last night was the best they had played for years. The Croatian commentary generally was bordering on disbelief that they had played so well.

    They scored a slightly freakish goal after two minutes (although great re adjustment by the scorer) usually those ones don’t go in.

    Thrice fortunate for their goal for 2-1,
    1. Scorer offside before ward touched it
    2. Ward fouled from behind, that ricochet could have gone anywhere, including into shays arms.
    3. Scorer still offside when he struck the ball. The fact ward touched it last doesn’t matter.

    So it wasn’t nearly as catastrophic as some have said. You have to consider also that in these Days of free media coverage the editors have to use more extreme and pejorative language to get noticed on the web, thus “humbled” “thrashed” “found out” etc, mostly rubbish.

    So Spain will probably beat Ireland ,yes, but it’s not impossible for Ireland to really show up against Spain and surprise everyone. We Wont give up yet.

    56
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    Mute Karl Cranny
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    Jun 11th 2012, 8:38 PM

    Finally someone talking some sense and not just a bunch of nay sayers who love to read themselves on forums.

    Swear to God after reading most of the comments on this site and the bloody gutter level insults I would have to ask myself why even bother for us.

    This behaviour is more common of English fans, the Irish fans I know would stick by the team instead of resorting to trash talking their own team on the net.

    I also don’t fully agree with the way Trap sets Ireland up, but will support the team anyways.

    You lot make me sad, end of.

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    Mute Vanessa Slater
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    Jun 11th 2012, 8:41 PM

    Finally some positivity and optimism. Whatever happens in the next two games I will still support this team as will all true fans. I have hope that thursday will be ok for us. COYBIG

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    Mute Tom Curtis
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    Jun 11th 2012, 8:46 PM

    So not matter what Trap does we should just keep our mouths shut and be grateful? It’s that kind of forelock tugging that has the country into the state it is. I was supporting Ireland before Trap ever came to these shores and I’ll be supporting them long after he’s gone. So if he does something I don’t agree with I will bloody well say so. It’s our team not any individual managers.

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    Mute Karl Cranny
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    Jun 11th 2012, 8:57 PM

    Who said keep your mouth shut and be grateful?

    Criticism is fine, but I, who have also been supporting Ireland long before Trap became manager, am not used to this sucker punch gutter snipe that is being spouted on these boards – uncalled for.

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    Mute Séamus Ó Lochlainn
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    Jun 11th 2012, 10:43 PM

    Fair play lads, it’s pathetic to see the above pessimism and abuse after One game. Not a fan of Trap at all but what good will turning on the team do now? Get behind them til the end and sure you never know what can happen. And congrats as per usual to the amazing Irish fans over. Wish I was there.

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    Mute Liam Preston
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    Jun 11th 2012, 8:14 PM

    Ireland will beat Spain and draw with Italy to qualify from this group. This is based on the fact that in prior tournaments Spain beat ireland in 2002 and Italy beat Ireland in 1990 while Ireland beat Italy in 1994 , hence the draw, plus I’ve backed Ireland to win the tournament today at 200-1. COYBIG

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    Mute Adrian de Cleir
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    Jun 11th 2012, 9:46 PM

    Im taking on a new policy. Whats done is done, we lost to Croatia.

    Im getting tired of this fickle extreme over-optimism horribly turning to dirty negativity.

    More than 50 teams tried to qualify for this,admittedly lots of crap ones, but still. We got there, top 16 teams, actually top 14, because Poland and Ukraine got free passes.

    We were drawn against 3 absolute world class teams, one of which is the favourite to win the bloody thing.
    And here is us berating the fact that we may not hit the last 8 in the whole of Europe given our group. Our fans have seriously represented us over there, it was absolutely amazing to see last night.

    Why not just enjoy these matches? Enjoy the fact that we are watching a European championship with US IN IT, as oppose to sitting there like we have done for the last 24 years as neutral spectators.

    We actually have matches to look forward to this time, its been a first for 10 years.

    Im not trying to impose this whole “ah being there is enough” laxed attitude. Im just saying that lets call a spade a spade, Croatia beat us , whats done is done now, and theres no point being miserable for two more fantastic games in their own right.

    Theres also other positives to look at. Here is a chance for some young players to play at such a high level, that can only do us good for the Brazil qualifiers.

    There is also the issue of FIFA rankings and seeding for the future that make these games worth enjoying, even if it is just draws we scrape.

    And not to mention the fact that our fans have been so bloody impressive that it may stand to us when we begin our bid for 2020.

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    Mute Karl Cranny
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    Jun 11th 2012, 9:57 PM

    Well said, amen.

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    Mute Joe Loughrey
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    Jun 11th 2012, 11:25 PM

    Well articulated Adrian. That’s actually put me in a great frame of mind ahead of Thursday.

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    Mute Dmc
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    Jun 11th 2012, 8:48 PM

    What happened to the fighting Irish attitude?!!! Im not giving up. We’re fighters. Stop all the moaning. C’mon Ireland! Yaaaaaaaaaaaa!!!

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    Mute Conor Conneally
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    Jun 11th 2012, 7:49 PM

    I think there a better chance of all the other players on all the other teams getting sick and Ireland winning by default

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    Mute Mick Jones
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    Jun 11th 2012, 8:11 PM

    So you’re telling me there’s a chance eh?!

    76
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    Mute peter
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    Jun 11th 2012, 7:52 PM

    trap is a Muppet. Crap tactics and he got another contract. This was a tournament for youth and he blew it

    28
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    Mute Setrakian
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    Jun 11th 2012, 8:23 PM

    We drew our way to the euros & have little or no chance of progressing. Facing facts – not blind optimism. Goals win games but we don’t have a goal scorer. Keane is average, Doyje scored 4 goals all season, Whelan should be done for fraud trying to pass himself off as footballer & our manager has only one system which was found out in fine style last night. In all my time following football this is by a mile the most underwhelming squad in green – bottlers minus talent = losers.

    25
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    Mute Adrian de Cleir
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    Jun 11th 2012, 8:59 PM

    this thing about the system being found out is getting annoying, we could have probably scraped a draw on sunday had we actually played our system properly and defended better.

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    Mute Mark Cullen
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    Jun 12th 2012, 12:57 AM

    obviously, you’re not a golfer

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    Mute Graham Carrick
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    Jun 12th 2012, 9:11 AM

    You are a typical Irish pessimistic clown. Fans in Poland can see nothing but an epic win against Spain

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    Mute John Paul
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    Jun 11th 2012, 8:59 PM

    I think the comments are very sad we are not a greatest team we never have being but we have always being seen to stand by our team

    17
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    Mute Chris lynch
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    Jun 11th 2012, 9:01 PM

    COYBIG – We need nothing short of a miracle to got out of the group, but I will be hopeful and support the boys, anything is possible

    16
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    Mute Gis Bayertz
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    Jun 11th 2012, 8:18 PM

    And where are they supposed to get the four points from?

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    Mute Paddy Murphy
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    Jun 11th 2012, 8:27 PM

    I’ll diagnose this. you my friend have a classic case of headline to comment speed reading. in between them bits there’s a whole lot more information that at all times shouldn’t be overlooked.

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    Mute Adrian de Cleir
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    Jun 11th 2012, 8:57 PM

    Thanks Paddy, a sound diagnosis.

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    Mute Steven Smyth
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    Jun 11th 2012, 11:47 PM

    I’m sorted for the Italy match in Poznan, going on Monday morning so I hope we get at least a point against Spain and we’re still in with a shout.
    Even if we’re not I’ll support them just the same. I’m Irish after all, that’s what we do. Leave it to the French to turn on their team when things go wrong. I didn’t expect them to win it, I hoped for the knockouts that’s all.
    There’s a few players in that team that have given everything for Ireland over the years, and the game against Italy is likely to be their last so I’m expecting the fans to give it everything in return, especially if we’re heading out of the tournament towards the end of the game.
    In a country with a similar population as Croatia, we had our chance but they were too good on the night. I’m fairly sure that in Ireland soccer is not the most popular sport, that’s GAA. Then there’s those who play rugby.
    In Croatia I’d bet the most popular team sport is football, so let’s get this into perspective.
    Fingers crossed we give Spain & Italy a good hard game, and get a couple of points or three, or four (“,)

    11
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    Mute Ferg Breen
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    Jun 12th 2012, 1:09 AM

    Good man Steven. The attitude I like to hear.
    I still believe.

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    Mute Jennifer Pender
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    Jun 11th 2012, 8:45 PM

    It’s the fans that travelled over to support them that I feel sorry for … I bet they’re not singing YOU’LL NEVER BEAT THE IRISH now!

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    Mute john ward
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    Jun 11th 2012, 10:23 PM

    You’re an idiot, the true fans don’t just travel for a win, they are there to support the team, the country, our history at football tournaments is impeccable, time and time again we’ve shown the whole world that a tiny nation makes the biggest noise, win lose or draw our fans over there will sing there hearts out, because that is the Irish way, our team never really had much chance compared to the talent in our group but we can hope and dream for another football miracle, wishing them all the best for Thursday, I’ll still be proud no matter what happens, people need to get behind the team, we all know our weaknesses, put some effort into enjoying the fact you’re country is actually at the competition instead. Coybig.

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    Mute Graham Carrick
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    Jun 12th 2012, 9:13 AM

    No the song has actually been changed to “you’ll never beat Croatia” over here in Poland

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    Mute Jennifer Pender
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    Jun 12th 2012, 9:51 AM

    Erra relax John Ward… And less of the name calling please. Thank you!
    Sure, it’s great to have hopes and dreams but we all must face reality at some point, and after Thursday’s game, i hope i’m wrong, i fear Graham Carrick will be singing “you’ll never beat Croatia and Spain”

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    Mute Luke O'Brien
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    Jun 11th 2012, 11:14 PM

    We had terrible luck against Croatia and we were out played but I believe if we get the draw against Spain (even a 0-0) then we will be so pumped for the last game against Italy that we could just play a blinder and do it. Have faith.

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    Mute Brendan Peters
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    Jun 11th 2012, 11:06 PM

    Well it’s like this- we are not good enough our seeding doesn’t lie- our style of football is poor- to make progress we need to change our style of play- a new manager needed and some of our older players need to go to the bench and our younger players need to start mc clean, mc carthy, Coleman, and hoolahan and pilkington need to be brought in and the team built around them Long, Walters also it will take a few years but in the long run it will be better- add it to our heart and spirit and we could have something to look forward to

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    Mute Tom Callaghan
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    Jun 11th 2012, 11:44 PM

    i blame the quality of soccer in Irish leagues, we actually looked scared to create any type of chance… to be honest our whole squad isn’t even on the starting 11 in any current premiership team. correct me if i’m wrong maybe 1 or two from the teams that got promoted this season

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    Mute Dhakina's Sword
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    Jun 11th 2012, 9:12 PM

    Just a suggestion for the future, and a radical one at that. I know this will be seen as borne out of disappointment and that’s true but hear me out. If in other sports such as horse racing, an under weight jockey( almost said rider ) is handicapped by having weights added, in order to level the playing field, so to speak, then could something similar not be introduced in football. What I am referring to is the obvious elephant in the room, whereby populations which in some cases are ten times and more than their opponents are able to choose from such greater pools of potential talent than smaller countries that It gives them a seemingly unfair advantage. In these scenarios, how about giving relatively tiny populated countries some points to even things up, even before the game. Or for example, if one country is playing another country whose population is ten times the other, then perhaps the greater populated country should have to play with only ten men. Radical as I said, but nothing is set in stone and if only to create, to my mind, a fairer competition in country versus country situations, then food for thought, is all I’m saying.

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    Mute Adrian de Cleir
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    Jun 11th 2012, 9:47 PM
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    Mute Dhakina's Sword
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    Jun 11th 2012, 11:57 PM

    Clearly, the delirium of disappointment got the better of me. My bad, as they say. Obviously,I know that the differences in population sizes were not relevant in the game against Croatia, but my brain was running ahead of itself when I made that comment. My terrible would be more appropriate. Arragh.

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    Mute Sam slade
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    Jun 11th 2012, 11:25 PM

    all this positivity battling the naysayers is making me positive too!! im positive that this Irish team wont get out of the group. im positive that there is no composure on the ball and that whatever the result Ireland will b atrocious to watch. they have been atrocious for ages. coybig just sounds pathetic considering they wont play football or even try. so I suppose im not a real fan either. not of the shite that lot play anyways.

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    Mute Sean Carrigg
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    Jun 12th 2012, 4:06 PM

    Where are these expectations coming from? and coupled with that the harsh criticism of the Irish team?

    Time for a reality check. In the glory years of ’88, 90 etc. the Irish team was made up of players who regularly played with the bigger clubs in England. However that was then, since then thanks to the Bosman ruling and some other EEC regulations, there are no restrictions to the amount of foreign players in a team. Before the Bosman ruling for some unknown reason Great British and Irish players were exepmt to this ruling. Added to this, the enormous cash injection at the outset of the Premiership in 1992 meant that clubs had the money to buy any player they wanted and there were no regulations to stop these players playing. Result, Irish (both Northern and Republic), Welsh, Scottish and even English players were being pushed out of the top sides (very evident at Arsenal and Chelsea). What we see now is a decline in the fortunes of the home countries and the Republic of Ireland. Remember England missed out in Euro 2008. Bearing all this in mind, the fact that Ireland qualified is probably even more amazing than the qualifications of the Jackie Charlton teams in the 80s/90s. So stop cribbing and support your country. Just making the finals is a fantastic achievement. Most of all I hope the fans enjoy every minute of it!! They are truly loyal (not like some of the contributors here).

    As for the mathematics, thats part of the joy of a tournament…..the what ifs……

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    Mute Eoin O'Reilly
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    Jun 14th 2012, 3:22 PM

    I don’t think you covered that if we draw with Spain and beat Italy, and Croatia lose both their remaining games, it will be:
    ESP 5pts, Ireland 4pts, Italy 4pts, Croatia 3pts;
    and we’d go through by virtue of having a better head to head record against Italy.

    Either way we should all be behind Italy in the game against Croatia today! A win for them makes things a lot simpler for us.

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    Mute Ciaran McMahon
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    Jun 11th 2012, 11:13 PM

    We are finished. I would love it if we qualified but it won’t happen. It is as simple as that. The boys in green will try their very best (of course) but realistically there is no way we can get at least 4 points from our next 2 games against Spain and Italy. I am just hoping for an incredible miracle…

    1
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