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Ireland's Marc Wilson and John O'Shea dejected at the final whistle against Sweden. INPHO/James Crombie

Explainer: Here's how Ireland can pull off a miracle and qualify for the World Cup

Trap’s side can still technically qualify, though there are a number of caveats that could prevent them from doing so.

How’s the group looking?

Ireland currently have 11 points from seven games, level with Austria, and three points behind Sweden, who of course, beat Trap’s men at the weekend. Meanwhile, Germany are all but assured first place, needing just six points from their last three games to guarantee automatic qualification (and one of the games is against group minnows Faroe Islands). Moreover, the Germans’ goal difference is so superior to that of anyone else in the group that four points would almost definitely be sufficient, in the unlikely scenario of them having a disastrous end to their campaign.

So essentially, first and foremost, Ireland are relying on Sweden slipping up in at least one of their final three games (against Kazakhstan, Austria and Germany).

Even if Ireland recover the three-point margin, Sweden still are +4 to the good as far as goal difference is concerned, so they’ll in all likelihood have to hope they drop points in at least two of the games.

Of course, that’s still working under the assumption that Ireland win all three of their final group games: away to Austria and Germany, and at home to Kazakhstan — an unenviable task if ever there was one.

image

Pic via Fifa.com

Tell me more about this best runners-up malarkey…

Essentially, only eight of the nine teams can make the play-0ffs. To measure who is eligible, the teams with the highest points, in second place, have their results added up (excluding their games against the bottom-placed team, with the exception of Group I, which has only five teams). Hence, the eight teams with the highest points tally under these conditions go through to the play-offs. Ireland’s points tally is currently dangerously low, so even if they finish second, they could possibly not qualify by virtue of their being the worst runners-up.

Is there any way back if Ireland fail to beat Austria?

Technically, Ireland could still finish second, but it’d be dependent upon an extremely unlikely series of results. It would mean they’d need to beat both Germany and Kazakhstan and hope the Sweden-Austria game ends in a draw. They would also likely be heavily reliant on Austria slipping up against the Faroes — a near-impossible outcome.

Yet even if all these results occurred, Ireland would be hard-pressed to secure one of the best runners-up spots on account of their low overall points tally.

So what do they need to do?

Essentially, it appears that seven points from their final three games is essential, but even with nine, they would be relying on other results (primarily Sweden slipping up) working out in their favour, while the prospect of Group C producing the worst runner-up is also a distinct possibility. In other words, managing to qualify from in the context of this current situation would probably be the greatest and most improbable achievement in Irish footballing history.

Opinion: Ireland have the players to qualify for the World Cup, just not the manager>

Trap looks for ‘fresh energy’ to lift demoralised Ireland>

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18 Comments
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    Mute Rory McCreesh
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    Sep 9th 2013, 8:59 AM

    Dream on

    40
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    Mute Patrick Fitzgerald
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    Sep 9th 2013, 9:33 AM

    O’Neill has already reiterated his commitment to club football, so he’s unlikely to be persuaded otherwise. What makes this campaign to infuriating is that Ireland have the players to match Sweden and Austria. Take Ibrah out of that Swedish team, and they’re more average than Ireland’s squad. It’s this negative approach to football that Trap has with the current squad – the most predictable tactics that teams can suss out after the first 15-20 minutes, which Sweden proved last Friday (as did Croatia, Spain and Italy last year). I’ll still cheer for the lads and hope for qualification, but Trap is an issue that has to be addressed, and regardless of qualification I think he needs to go before the Euro 2016 campaign begins, and a manager brought in with a positive attitude towards the players.

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    Mute Ger
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    Sep 9th 2013, 9:06 AM

    Not gonna happen. I would hope that should Ireland not beat Austria tomorrow that Trap steps down so that a new manager can come in straight away and start moulding a side for the European qualifiers. Not an interim manager, but the real deal. Someone like Martin O’Neill who is free or Mick McCarthey if he can be talked into quitting his current job and coming back.

    20
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    Mute Better Than You
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    Sep 9th 2013, 10:42 AM

    Murder every member of the Austrian starting 11 & hope their 2nd team is muck…. That’s the only way

    18
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    Mute Nicholas Behan
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    Sep 9th 2013, 9:52 AM

    I’ll get red thumbs for this but i don’t care.

    I really feel that playing good football through youth should be the teams priority after the Trap reign ends.
    The FAI should make that clear to the MEDIA and the new manager, that qualification for major tournaments would be a bonus; but not a “be all and end all”. People simply won’t stand for those ticket prices anymore if Ireland keep playing the “Kick and Hope” game.
    The MEDIA need to be responsible here and not hype us up into world beaters thus making the new managers job impossible. (Eamonn Dunphy, i’m looking at you)

    With that i think the following players should hang up their boots to give way to the next generation.

    Robbie Keane (33 years old)
    Richard Dunne (33 years old)
    Glen Whelan
    John O Shea (32 years old)

    You would hope that playing good football may attract more naturally talented irish players to play for their country again.
    These guys should be definitely considered; regardless of their attitude problems in the past.

    Anthony Stokes, Stephen Ireland, Darron Gibson.

    Also bring in Cillian Sheridan, he offers as much as Sammon.
    Alex Pearse and Joey O Brien need to come into the defense too.

    15
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    Mute Adam Fitzpatrick
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    Sep 9th 2013, 11:10 AM

    Joey O’Brien doesn’t deserve to be in the squad after pulling out with injury, then going on to play for West Ham that weekend.

    12
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    Mute Nicholas Behan
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    Sep 9th 2013, 11:49 AM

    I didn’t know that so i take your point. However, the attitude of these players may change in the future if the national team are playing a better style of football.

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    Mute Nicholas Ring
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    Sep 9th 2013, 6:19 PM

    You cannot tell players not to represent (step down from) their country because of age. If they are deemed good enough to be picked to play, age does not matter. This applies in all sports.

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    Mute Robbie Byrne
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    Sep 9th 2013, 9:02 AM

    At the end of the day qualifying, by whatever means, would mean Trap staying on. So, no thanks!

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    Mute Barry Evans
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    Sep 9th 2013, 10:16 AM

    Nicholas if Roy keane got the job I’d never watch them on tv again never mind set foot inside the aviva!
    What qualifies him as an international manager.. Anyway he’s too happy sitting in the itv studios sticking his boot into all his old teammates and united

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    Mute Panch Murphy
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    Sep 9th 2013, 1:39 PM

    Here’s my version of the explainer,

    “We’re rubber ducked”

    Look at what a manager like Micheal O Neil has done in the North with very limited resources.
    The change to morale and results would be drastic if we can find a young hungry manager with a progressive philosophy in how to play the game.

    8
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    Mute Nicholas Ring
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    Sep 9th 2013, 6:22 PM

    NI got a win over Russia. That’s all, no other wins.

    5
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    Mute Panch Murphy
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    Sep 9th 2013, 8:14 PM

    One more win over Russia than we got in our last qualifying campaign!
    Also a draw away to Portugal, I’d love to see our boys get a draw in Cristiano Ronaldos back yard!

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    Mute Michael O' Riordan
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    Sep 9th 2013, 2:30 PM

    Clutching at straws. If we don’t win Trap will still say ‘its not over yet’. What a load of rubbish.

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    Mute Nicholas Behan
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    Sep 9th 2013, 9:31 AM

    I fear that even if we lose tomorrow night, Trap may just be stubborn enough to want to see out the remaining fixtures which would mean he would have to be sacked. I don’t think Delaney has the conviction to confront the man in that way. Also, it would inevitably mean that a new guy would have to be ready immediately which i don’t see being the case. Us rushing out to find a new man would not be the wisest, even if O Neill is available now.
    The FAI wouldn’t want the expense of having to pay an interim coach until Christmas either.
    In other words, regardless of what happens i think we are stuck with Trap until the end of the year.

    There are potentially better options available as the next manager anyway. Im not sure how affordable they are.

    Martin O’ Neill (most likely)
    Rene Meulensteen (My first choice)
    Mike Phelan
    Steve Mclaren
    David O Leary
    Gus Hiddink (would be amazing but probably never gonna happen)
    Jupp Heynckes (equally unlikely)
    Roy Keane

    5
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    Mute executioner
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    Sep 10th 2013, 1:07 PM

    So in other words we’re Fu###d

    3
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    Mute Spoddgy
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    Sep 9th 2013, 6:19 PM

    Was there a need for this article? U could just wrote win all our remaining matches after that favourable results…….. Same conclusion as this long winded article.

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    Mute Tony Mc Donagh
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    Sep 10th 2013, 10:45 AM

    go home ireland your drunk

    1
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