1. Fascinating tactical battle
There’s no doubt that one of the most anticipated aspects of today’s game is how Jim Gavin and Jim McGuinness will approach it. The infamous 2011 semi-final between these two sides appalled half the country, but left the other half fascinated.
McGuinness is unlikely to go quite as defensive today, but the five days the Donegal squad spent in the Johnstown House Hotel last week suggest that he will have them well drilled on some sort of defensive system.
Jim Gavin had Dublin suffocating Monaghan’s defensive system in the quarter-final by pushing right up on them from in a high pressing game, and Dublin will stick with that system today. Another interesting point to note will be where Michael Murphy spends most of his time for Donegal, and who will mark him if he joins McFadden in the full forward line.
[image alt="Jim McGuinness" src="http://cdn.thejournal.ie/media/2014/08/jim-mcguinness-17-296x202.jpg" width="296" height="202" credit-source="Donall%20Farmer%2FINPHO" class="alignnone" /end]
2. Can Donegal score enough?
In that 2011 semi-final, Colm McFadden acted as Donegal’ s sole attacking threat and was capable of putting away any chances that came his way.
A year later, McFadden was pipped to Footballer of the Year by his team-mate Karl Lacey, but his form has dramatically declined ever since. Donegal’s wide spread of scorers means that they haven’t relied on the 31-year-old up to this point, but his paltry 0-2 from play this year means that he must hit form if Donegal are to stand any chance.
They will back themselves to frustrate Dublin and dramatically reduce their strike rate, but in order to win Donegal must also improve their own. The Dubs are averaging almost 29 points per game and because Donegal will spend so much energy on defending, they need to be clinical when they push forward.
[image alt="Paul Flynn and Neil McGee" src="http://cdn.thejournal.ie/media/2014/08/paul-flynn-and-neil-mcgee-296x194.jpg" width="296" height="194" credit-source="Cathal%20Noonan%2FINPHO" class="alignnone" /end]
3. Will the massacre take place the bookies are predicting?
The bookies are giving Donegal little chance of pulling off a shock today. The 2012 All-Ireland champions 6/1 outsiders, while the spread offered is Dublin -7.
It seems the bookies are expecting an easy Dublin victory and on the face of it it’s hard to argue against it. But since their victory over Armagh, Donegal have had three weeks to absolutely forensically analyse Dublin’s system. And don’t forget it took Dublin 25 minutes before they managed a score from play against Monaghan’s less refined defensive set-up.
Much depends on how many goals Donegal concede. If they can keep things watertight at the back and prevent Dublin from raising the green flag altogether, then they have a every chance of victory. But leak a couple of goals and Dublin will gladly run up the score.
[image alt="Diarmuid Connolly and Vinny Corey" src="http://cdn.thejournal.ie/media/2014/08/diarmuid-connolly-and-vinny-corey-2-296x372.jpg" width="296" height="372" credit-source="Cathal%20Noonan%2FINPHO" class="alignnone" /end]
4. Kick outs
Monaghan gifted Dublin possession on their own kick outs, opting for a defensive line on the 45 and Donegal will probably do the same, just as they did in that 2011 semi-final, rather than force Stephen Cluxton to kick long.
But Monaghan persevered in sending their own kick outs long against Dublin, despite the fact that their wing-forwards never pushed back up far enough to contest the breaks. It meant that Dublin picked up a huge amount of primary possession in the middle third. Give them enough of the ball and eventually they will kick the door in.
Donegal might be willing to hand the Dubs possession on Cluxton’s restarts, but their ability to contest and win Paul Durcan’s kick outs will have a major impact on the outcome today.
[image alt="Darach O'Connor" src="http://cdn.thejournal.ie/media/2014/08/darach-oconnor-296x187.jpg" width="296" height="187" credit-source="Donall%20Farmer%2FINPHO" class="alignnone" /end]
5. The two most innovative teams in the country
This Dublin side have been admired for their swash buckling attacking style of football in the past couple of years, while Donegal deserve equal recognition for the manner in which McGuinness has turned them into an Ulster powerhouse.
Donegal’s defensive template has been adapted by numerous sides in recent years, but no one has quite managed to replicate its success. Dublin, on the other hand, utilise an open brand of attacking football and a high-pressing defensive system where Gavin has complete faith in his defenders.
Two completely opposing systems will collide in what is sure to be an intriguing clash.
