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Whip Hand

Betting for Dubai World Cup Day

Mark Hobbs previews a big day of racing in the middle east.

THE WORLD’S RICHEST race takes place in Meydan today, which is not surprising given that the locals’ wallets are big enough to buy football clubs on a whim.

In recent years the famous Coolmore team have boycotted the racing carnival in Dubai – not least because they don’t quite see eye to eye with their rival breeders Godolphin, whose owner built the race track. But with the prize money on offer even Magnier and his pals can’t afford to be stubborn; the headlining Dubai World Cup race is worth around five million euro alone. Cape Blanco is their representative in the event.

The Main Event

The Irish colt goes there with excellent credentials; he loves a fast surface, has top class form at this distance, and he has already beaten the current favourite Twice Over by some six lengths. Having taken the Irish Derby and Champion Stakes in his three year-old season, he could certainly be expected to improve this term. One worry is his recent sale however, where a majority share in the colt was bought by a Scottish-born, Dubai-based businessman. Unless the offer was astronomical it’s hard to see why the Coolmore honchos would see fit to sell such a prized asset if they expected him to continue his form. If he runs to last year’s form he will be hard to stop, but some doubts remain.

Twice Over had been all the rage in the build-up, until his wide draw caused a sudden drift in the betting. Henry Cecil’s horse would be a popular winner and the progress he has made as a four and five year old has been impressive. However, it’s debatable as to whether he deserves his place at the head of the market. As well as having been hammered by Cape Blanco last year, he has also finished behind the American raider Gio Ponti on two occasions – including in this race last term.

Gio Ponti is now four times the favourite’s price; which surely makes him a value bet for the huge pot on offer. The horse has some outstanding form stateside, where along with multiple Group One victories on turf he finished a fine second to Zenyatta in the Breeders’ Cup Classic in 2009. He proved his well-being at the same meeting last November, finding another mare one too good in the Breeders’ Cup Mile behind Goldikova. His fourth place here last year was reasonable form in anyone’s book, but it’s even more heartening considering his jockey had left him far too much to do in the closing stages of the race. A slightly more aggressive ride this time around should see him in better stead.

Guinness for the King

But before we reach the centrepiece of the Dubai racing calendar, there are seven other races to unravel first. The Al Quoz Sprint will likely go the way of JJ The Jet Plane, but at double figure odds last year’s 100/1 Nunthorpe winner Sole Power could run a fine race. It will be intriguing to see whether Edward Lynams’ charge can follow up on his unlikely success, or whether it was just another one of those shocks that the racing gods throw up to keep us all on our toes.

The six furlong Golden Shaheen could again go to Kinsale King, a six-year old whose Irish trainer Carl O’ Callaghan treats with several Guinness every day. He has reportedly travelled over in much better form than last year, and with his prominent style of racing the inside draw will do him no harm at all. Let’s just hope he turns up sober.

The Dubai Duty Free is a tricky contest, with lots of conflicting form-lines. Former Ballydoyle inmate and Dewhurst winner Beethoven has had a very tough 12 months with almost non-stop racing, and his form has dipped as a result. But if he shows some of his spark from last year he could sneak into a place at a huge price.

Verdict

Gio Ponti is a logical bet at 11/1, having twice beaten the current favourite twice over. He may well find one too good, but his form is not too far off the best on offer considering the proximity he has finished to modern greats such as Zenyatta and Goldikova. Cape Blanco could give him most to do if he reproduces last year’s performances. Kinsale King is reasonably quoted at 4/1 to follow up on last year’s success. Beethoven may just about sneak into a place in the Dubai Duty Free if it’s a going day, and is worth a tiny wager at 66/1.